A Heater of a Month. Here's What's Underneath It.
Your customers are walking off the lot, pen still in hand, telling you the economy is a disaster.
That’s not an exaggeration. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey just printed a 45-year low. In that same window, new vehicle sales surged 18.2% month over month, and used retail climbed 7.1%. The U.S. auto market is running at a 16.3 million SAAR.
Fountain Forward is calling it complaining while buying. Consumers are using every outlet to register frustration, then going home, looking at a tax refund running 15 to 20% larger than typical years, and buying a car anyway.
Three Numbers Worth Watching
Auction prices are up nearly 10% since the start of the year. If you were paying $27,000 at auction two months ago, you’re approaching $30,000 now. The used margin model that worked last quarter needs to be rebuilt around current costs.
Prime borrower delinquencies have moved from 1.8% to 2.0%. Not a crisis, but watch it monthly, the transmission from gas prices to consumer wallets is not slow.
Rate cut expectations have effectively collapsed. Two cuts were priced in earlier this year. That forecast is gone, and monthly payment math is tightening from here.
Wondering how these shifts are affecting your specific store?
The Tax Refund Window Has a Close Date
$100 billion in tax refunds is hitting consumer pockets over the next 30 days, with average refund size running 15 to 20% above typical years. That’s the largest negative equity bridge dealers have seen in years.
The dealers winning right now aren’t waiting for sentiment to recover. They’re positioning the refund as a negative equity bridge before customers ask, and showing gas-anxious buyers the math on used EVs converging around $25,000.
What to Pull This Week
Learn how your store is positioned against what’s coming:
